The conditions for a "short squeeze" in U.S. stocks in the fourth quarter are gradually coming into effect: CTA positions are retreating, and US$1.3 trillion in buybacks are ready to go.

BlockBeats news, on October 3, according to WSJ reports, data from Goldman Sachs and other institutions show that the positions of U.S. stock CTA (trend following quantitative funds) have undergone significant adjustments recently. Rubner research shows that the Z value of its position has dropped from +2.35 at the end of August to -0.80, with a swing of more than 3 standard deviations within a month, which means that the long positions accumulated previously have been significantly cleared.

At the same time, U.S. companies have authorized about $1.3 trillion in stock repurchases this year. Some of the repurchase plans will be gradually restarted after October 15 as the third-quarter report silent period ends. Historical data shows that repurchases usually increase further in November.

In terms of seasonality, Rubner data shows that since 1930, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 5.6% in the fourth quarter of U.S. midterm election years, above the 2.9% average for the fourth quarter in all years.

In technology stocks, Nasdaq 100 futures approached key resistance at 31,200, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index broke through short-term resistance and moved closer to a record high. Goldman Sachs predicts that the scale of bond issuance by hyperscale cloud vendors in 2027 may reach US$420 billion, but its interest expenses will still account for a low proportion of profits; Morgan Stanley data shows that the net leverage of related companies is about 0.4 times, and cash is about 132% of debt.

In addition, Goldman Sachs said that the previously downgraded pricing expectations of traditional storage and HBM have begun to repair, while JP Morgan pointed out that the profit outlook for semiconductor hardware is still relatively solid, and demand for TSMC's AI accelerator is strong. Another big variable in the fourth quarter remains crude oil. Goldman Sachs believes that the global crude oil inventory cushion has become significantly thinner, and that an oil price of $100 is not inconsistent with the current supply and demand balance.