U.S. non-agricultural outlook for September: Employment growth is expected to slow down, and expectations of raising interest rates in October have dropped significantly

According to BlockBeats news, on October 2, the United States will release the September non-farm employment report at 20:30 Beijing time on Friday. The latest Reuters poll shows that U.S. nonfarm payroll employment is expected to increase by 90,000 in September, significantly lower than the 162,000 in August, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1% for the third consecutive month. The report will be one of the key pieces of data to determine whether the labor market remains resilient and whether further rate hikes are needed in October, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years in September.

The market is currently focusing on more than just the number of new jobs. The August employment data was unexpectedly strong, but some economists believe this may be affected by seasonal adjustment factors, and there is a possibility that August growth will be revised downwards when September data is released.

Ahead of September's non-farm payrolls release, market expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in October have dropped significantly. As of Thursday, markets were pricing in about a 28% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, down from nearly 69% a week ago. Therefore, the most important message from tonight's jobs report is not just whether non-farm payrolls met market expectations of 90,000. Whether the unemployment rate can continue to remain at 4.1%, whether wage growth will accelerate again, and whether the strong growth of 162,000 people in August will be significantly revised down will jointly determine the market's judgment on the resilience of the U.S. labor market and the pace of the Fed's next policy.