Next Week's Macro Outlook: Gold "Spinning in Place" with Direction Still Unclear? CPI to Test Fed's Rate Pause Expectations

PANews October 10 news: Over the past week, the U.S. and Iran remained in a standoff, but Trump explicitly ruled out the possibility of taking action before the midterm elections. At the same time, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes and multiple officials sent a consistent signal: although inflation remains elevated and there may be one more rate hike within the year, action is not necessarily imminent in October. The following are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times Beijing time):

Monday, TBD, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank annual meetings are held in Bangkok, through the 18th;

Tuesday, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks;

Tuesday 15:45, Fed Governor Waller speaks at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum held in India;

Tuesday 20:15, U.S. ADP employment weekly change for the week ending September 26;

Wednesday 4:00, 2028 FOMC voter and Boston Fed President Collins speaks;

Wednesday 17:40, Fed Governor Bowman speaks;

Wednesday 20:30, U.S. September CPI, core CPI;

Thursday 2:00, the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions;

Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, U.S. September retail sales month-over-month, U.S. September PPI and core PPI, U.S. October New York Fed manufacturing index, U.S. October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index;

Friday 4:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack speaks;

Friday 11:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh attends the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and holds a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Georgieva;

Friday 0:00, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.

The U.S. September CPI inflation data will be released on Wednesday, and investors will use it to judge the possible timing of the Federal Reserve's next rate hike. Although gold has withstood multiple bearish factors, downside risks remain, and the inflation data to be released next week is especially critical. After recent weak U.S. employment data and several Federal Reserve policymakers saying there is still time to wait before another rate hike, according to LSEG data, the market currently prices only a 19% probability of a rate hike on October 28, compared with a previous probability as high as 70%. However, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December.